Comments on: ‘One-Child’ and a Graying, Less Trustful China http://transpacifica.net/2007/10/17/one-child-and-a-graying-less-trustful-china/ News, commentary, and resources on the transpacific world. Thu, 21 Aug 2008 02:42:02 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: Graham Webster http://transpacifica.net/2007/10/17/one-child-and-a-graying-less-trustful-china/#comment-6997 Graham Webster Wed, 17 Oct 2007 19:22:27 +0000 http://transpacifica.net/2007/10/17/one-child-and-a-graying-less-trustful-china/#comment-6997 Admittedly, I didn't include information here as to the effect of the "one-child policy." I did keep most references in quotes (I'm adding quotes to the one I missed), but I didn't mean to imply everyone really has one child. I think the demographic analysis, while speculative and somewhat theoretical, is still interesting given that the policy is now going into its second "generation." Even if it's not pervasive and the name isn't perfectly accurate, reducing the number of people who have siblings does have a social effect. I'm new here, but it's definitely something people talk about—wishing they had siblings, wishing they could have a second child. Anyway, for fun, here's a bit of Rossman's <a href="http://orgtheory.wordpress.com/2007/10/17/the-decline-of-strong-ties/" rel="nofollow">technical analysis</a>: "Second, the unique thing about China is that it has low mean and variance for fertility, with a theoretical range of 0 to 1 (though in fact 3 baby families are not uncommon in rural China). In contrast, most other low fertility countries have low mean and high variance, so households with no babies and with two babies are more common than they are in China. Spaniards may have even fewer babies that the Chinese, but paradoxically a Spanish baby is more likely to have a sibling than is a Chinese baby. The upshot is that while intra-generational family ties are going to disappear in China, they will only weaken (a lot) in Europe. More technically, I’m making a confident prediction that in 30 years mean component size for kin networks will be appreciably higher in Spain or Italy than in China." Admittedly, I didn’t include information here as to the effect of the “one-child policy.” I did keep most references in quotes (I’m adding quotes to the one I missed), but I didn’t mean to imply everyone really has one child.

I think the demographic analysis, while speculative and somewhat theoretical, is still interesting given that the policy is now going into its second “generation.” Even if it’s not pervasive and the name isn’t perfectly accurate, reducing the number of people who have siblings does have a social effect. I’m new here, but it’s definitely something people talk about—wishing they had siblings, wishing they could have a second child.

Anyway, for fun, here’s a bit of Rossman’s technical analysis:

“Second, the unique thing about China is that it has low mean and variance for fertility, with a theoretical range of 0 to 1 (though in fact 3 baby families are not uncommon in rural China). In contrast, most other low fertility countries have low mean and high variance, so households with no babies and with two babies are more common than they are in China. Spaniards may have even fewer babies that the Chinese, but paradoxically a Spanish baby is more likely to have a sibling than is a Chinese baby. The upshot is that while intra-generational family ties are going to disappear in China, they will only weaken (a lot) in Europe. More technically, I’m making a confident prediction that in 30 years mean component size for kin networks will be appreciably higher in Spain or Italy than in China.”

]]> By: Falen http://transpacifica.net/2007/10/17/one-child-and-a-graying-less-trustful-china/#comment-6996 Falen Wed, 17 Oct 2007 19:08:26 +0000 http://transpacifica.net/2007/10/17/one-child-and-a-graying-less-trustful-china/#comment-6996 "As generations pass, the closest intragenerational relations will be cousins one-removed, then twice-, then thrice-." I rolled my eye. Did you REALLY think some dude setting the birth control policy would stay brain dead for three generations of 75 years!?? Puh-lease! The only thing really scary about the One Child Policy is its name as well as the accompanied over-reaction by the West. This image of an entire nation of single child and police dragging off pregnant women into forced abortion is obfuscating the fact that One Child Policy is a system of complex system of birth control program including incentives as well as fines. It is not unlike setting a monetary policy for population with multiple levers of control. The policies are constantly been tweaked with old rules phased out and new rules put in. It is applied differently in different geographic location and circumstances. According to Wikipedia, "...the overall fertility rate of mainland China is, in fact, closer to two children per family than to one child per family (1.8)..." Not optimal, but a far cry from the doomsday prediction of eminent social break collapse. There are a lot of ways for discrepancies to be managed. “As generations pass, the closest intragenerational relations will be cousins one-removed, then twice-, then thrice-.”

I rolled my eye. Did you REALLY think some dude setting the birth control policy would stay brain dead for three generations of 75 years!??

Puh-lease! The only thing really scary about the One Child Policy is its name as well as the accompanied over-reaction by the West.

This image of an entire nation of single child and police dragging off pregnant women into forced abortion is obfuscating the fact that One Child Policy is a system of complex system of birth control program including incentives as well as fines. It is not unlike setting a monetary policy for population with multiple levers of control.
The policies are constantly been tweaked with old rules phased out and new rules put in. It is applied differently in different geographic location and circumstances.

According to Wikipedia,

“…the overall fertility rate of mainland China is, in fact, closer to two children per family than to one child per family (1.8)…”

Not optimal, but a far cry from the doomsday prediction of eminent social break collapse. There are a lot of ways for discrepancies to be managed.

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