The United States is importing less oil from Venezuela, and China is buying more. Is Venezuela putting its resources where Hugo Chávez’s mouth is and using the country’s major export as a geopolitical lever? Or are U.S. imports just catching up with a 10-year decline in Venezuelan production?
The U.S. Energy Information Administration released April data on Monday, revealing that imports of crude and petroleum from Venezuela in the first four months of 2008 fell 10.7 percent from the same period last year—from about 1.3 million barrels/day to about 1.16 million b/d.
If we take a longer-term view of U.S. imports of Venezuelan crude and petroleum, the drop is even more significant: Venezuela sold about 1.6 million b/d to the United States in January–April of 2005, as it had since the mid-1990s (except in the oil strike years of 2000 and 2003). This means that Venezuelan sales to the United States have declined 30 percent over the past three years. Why?
AP’s Rachel Jones reports that the drop is likely due to three factors: (1) falling demand in the United States, (2) falling production in Venezuela, and (3) Venezuela’s decision to sell more oil to China. Does this make sense? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers:
Total U.S. oil imports in January–April 2008 dropped 2.5 percent compared with the same period last year (you can download the raw data here, or check out the Transpacifica digest below (after the jump). This, then, might explain one-fourth of the decline in imports from Venezuela.
There are no reliable numbers on Venezuelan oil production, but those that exist (for example, the monthly OPEC report) indicate at most a 2 percent drop in production from last year—which, like the change in U.S. demand, would explain only part of the 10.7 percent drop in sales. Over the past 10 years, however, Venezuelan production has declined about 25 percent—about the same as the change in U.S. imports over the past three years (according to EIA data here).
The AP report states that Venezuela now sends 250,000 b/d to China, up from next to nothing a few years ago. The story does not source this figure, and PDVSA, Venezuela’s state oil company, recently stated that China buys 398,000 b/d, as a result of increased CNPC operations. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has said that the country plans to sell China 1 million b/d by 2012.
Is China buying 250,000 b/d or more of Venezuelan oil? If so, does that purchase explain declining sales to the United States? Or would sales have declined anyway, as a result of falling production in Venezuela? What is the role of Chávez’s oil donations to countries throughout the region? Perhaps there are other explanations. If the United States wants control over how much oil it buys from Venezuela, the answer is critical. Continue reading →
The fair, organized by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, is an especially visible sign of the exponential growth in trade between China and Venezuela, which has surged from about $100 million in 1998 to $6 billion last year, according to the Chinese Embassy in Caracas.
The trade show comes on the heels of the government’s announcement that it has begun to spend some of the resources committed to the “China-Venezuela Investment Fund” earlier this year. Venezuela tagged $2 billion for the fund; China promised $4 billion, “the largest credit China has offered to any one country,” according to Zhang Xiaoqiang, a vice chairman of China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).
Chinochano notes [es] that most visits by foreign heads of state to China result in the same press release, names changed. In Spanish from the blog, here are the two hypothetical* examples.
George W. Bush
Pekín, 2 nov 2007 — El presidente de China, Hu Jintao, sostuvo conversaciones hoy aquí con su homólogo estadounidense, George Bush, quien está realizando una visita de Estado a China.Ambos líderes expresaron su satisfacción por el desarrollo de las relaciones bilaterales y acordaron profundizar la cooperación entre los dos países.Desde el establecimiento de las relaciones diplomáticas entre los dos países hace 35 años, la cooperación amistosa China-EEUU ha presenciado un desarrollo sin contratiempos, gracias al entendimiento y confianza mutuos, dijo Hu, quien expresó su aprecio por el apoyo de EEUU a la política de “una sola China”.
Pekín, 9 nov 2007 — El presidente de China, Hu Jintao, sostuvo conversaciones hoy aquí con su homólogo venezolano, Hugo Chávez, quien está realizando una visita de Estado a China.Ambos líderes expresaron su satisfacción por el desarrollo de las relaciones bilaterales y acordaron profundizar la cooperación entre los dos países.Desde el establecimiento de las relaciones diplomáticas entre los dos países hace 30 años, la cooperación amistosa China-Venezuela ha presenciado un desarrollo sin contratiempos, gracias al entendimiento y confianza mutuos, dijo Hu, quien expresó su aprecio por el apoyo de Venezuela a la política de “una sola China”.
Emphasis mine. I’m leaving out one on the Klingon state visit.
The sentence in bold had caught my eye in an English release when Bush and Hu last met. Without looking it up, it says that Hu “expressed his appreciation for United States/Venezuelan support of the ‘one China policy.'” Just thought I’d post this, as it seems to me that the United States, long walking a diplomatic tightrope on the issue, is one of the biggest substantial factors in why Taiwan remains how it is—despite decades of lip service about “one China.” Doesn’t mean you don’t get thanks for lipservice though.
* I had failed to make clear that these aren’t real releases. I’ve been fooled before, but this was just sloppy writing.